22 Years of Democracy in Nigeria: Some Questions and Reflections

 

By: Isa Mohammed

The return to civil rule in 1999 was welcome with euphoria and fanfare. The expectation is on the new vistas of freedom, political space,  opportunities, national cohesion, and development. 

However, the crop of political leaders in Nigeria has undermined the hopes of Nigerians through their approach to governance. Hence, there are mixed reactions to the importance of democratic rule to the people. 

My worry for Nigeria's democracy hinges on three premises. First, the practice of democracy, not the theoretical politics we know. So far Nigeria has practiced a parliamentary system from 1960-66 and it was replaced in 1979 with the presidential system 1979-83 which was truncated by the military in December 1983. In 1999, the military clique or elite manipulatively become politicians and capture the state power. 

The role of former presidents;  Gen. Abdulsalam and Gen. Babangida in bringing Gen. Obasanjo to power is well known. I will argue that maybe if we had civilians at the start things might have changed without the militarization of politics. 

Obasanjo was brutal and will always have his way on issues except for Third Term in 2006 and PMB's removal in 2019. Democracy without democrats in Nigeria. 

The major development we are enjoying today was conceived by a civilian after a disappointing electoral outcome in 2007. Late President Yar'adua introduced electoral reform which gave birth to most of what Prof. Jega achieved in the 2011 and 2015 general elections. Nigeria would have continued with a "Big Man Democracy" Electoral "Authoritarianism" and "Endless Transitions"

Former President Jonathan conceded defeat in 2015 which was a marker of statesmanship extraordinary. One major problem with democracy in Nigeria is the political parties especially the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Congress (APC) that lack pragmatic solutions to Nigeria's challenges. 

Nigeria has achieved a single alternation in 2015 we await the double alternation to complete the cycle of election victory and losses more sooner or later. Will PMB hand over power to PDP if his party loses in 2023 or would the PDP accepts defeat in 2023?

The scenario from the rising cases of violence, arson, banditry, and separatist movements point to two things; weak state capacity and a clarion call for national dialogue. I have argued for "Elite Consensus" in Nigeria severally. For instance, the National Council of State position on national issues, National Assembly and Nigerian Governors Forum and Political parties even traditional rulers, socio-cultural and religious groups viewpoints on what is needed to achieve national unity, peace, and development.

Therefore, 22 years is not a measure of democratic success but a process of its experiment in Nigeria. Democratization-by-election is not enough what happens to national cohesion and development should worry us. We need to seep thinking and soul searching for Nigeria. We need a crop of selfless political leaders not godfathers or money bags to break the york of endless mutual suspicions. 

Nigeria is a "Consociational Democracy". Even the Third Wave paradigm is being questioned by the End of Transition Paradigm as to whether we need another paradigm globally to evaluate democracies. (Carothers, 2002; Huntington,1991). 

Nigeria's democracy is on track according to Africa's Leadership Change Project. Contending issues in Nigeria's election are zoning, region, and religion all combine to overheat the polity. We need a holistic approach to address these issues or else we will continue to hate not to oppose each other politically. 

The opposition from PDP is very weak. Maybe because there is no guidance of the General's hands in it. Since OBJ pronounced his retirement from active politics in 2014. Although, he played a crucial role in promoting Alh. Atiku's candidacy in 2019. 

There are contradictions and divisions in the party on zoning instead of a united opposition party. Nigerians will not accept an inconclusive election in 2023 from the APC. 

Secondly, is good governance and governance for development. The current arrangements will not promote rapid development for Nigeria. The problem of the structure in terms of Exclusive legislative list: mining, agriculture, police and policing, citizenship, and fiscal federalism. More so, local government, judicial and legislative autonomy have been blocked. Good governance cannot be achieved with this arrangement with emperor governors.

 PMB did very well in empowerment programs with over N500 billion for the National Social Investment Program. There is a need for ministry for poverty alleviation at the FG and 36 states in Nigeria to lift people out of poverty. We need a new national approach to fighting poverty with our over 200 million people. 

The cost of governance is too much 75/25 in most states for recurrent expenditure and development or capital projects. Salaries and minimum wage have become a war with governors. 

Thirdly,  the issue of security and non-state actors that pose threat to the corporate existence of Nigeria. The FG is more concerned about regime security than national security. We have ungovernable spaces. It is alarming with the situations around the world of authoritative reversal becoming a new order. For instance, Mali and Myanmar. In Africa, from 1960 to 2014 there were 94 military coups for various reasons that are linked to political instability. 

My opinion is that the Nigerian elite didn't believe in the workability of the democratic system. From observations, the socio-cultural and religious groups have taken the place of political parties and democracy inclined civil society groups in Nigeria. This does not augur well but rather promotes divisions and weakens pressure on the government to do what is right. 

Democracy is about contingent consent and bounded uncertainty. There are more questions on democracy than answers today in Nigeria. 

God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Happy 22 Years of Uninterrupted Democracy.